Sometimes it feels like a bad stage show, with the main act being a magician who promises all sorts of logic-defying tricks in order to cast a spell over his audience – hoping that they will not notice the smoke and mirrors he uses to deceive them. This would be funny, were it not for the fact that the country is now 15 years on from the day when junior army officers toppled Sir Dawda Jawara and his government and installed himself as ‘magician-in-chief’. Since taking to the stage he has had to resort to a bag of tricks – first grand-sounding policy initiatives and then breathtakingly irresponsible pronouncements on areas well outside his expertise - to distract his people from his failures. This is one ‘Big Man of Africa’ who is dressed in all the tired finery of an ageing performer.
The euphoria that greeted the day that Yahya Jammeh assumed the throne has given way to political repression and harrowing poverty. The ‘soldiers with a difference’ promised to curb corruption and restore democracy and the rule of law, along with “transparency, probity and accountability” in government. Where have we heard that before? Having to fend off a counter-coup in the first days of the new administration as well as increasing international concern over the new government forced Jammeh to cut to two years a four-year transition program to what he was hoping to pass off as civilian rule. Jammeh, thereafter, resigned his commission but proceeded to engineer his victory in the 1996 presidential election by holding a referendum over a doctored constitution that tilted the political landscape in his favour.
In 2001 he was re-elected to a hotly disputed second five-year term and in 2006 scored a crushing defeat against a splintered five-party collation. Undoubtedly, Jammeh’s electoral victories were aided by a handpicked electoral commission and a process that was marred by violence, intimidation and gross electoral irregularities.
This may all be a bit easier for ordinary Gambians to stomach if the country actually had something to show for it. Yet ‘travel-advisories’ imposed by the United Kingdom and Scandinavian governments contracted post-coup economic activity considerably. This was exacerbated by endemic corruption and fiscal-policy mismanagement. Consequently, the regime’s much touted ‘Vision 2020’ - which promised to transform The Gambia into a ‘food-secure’ and ‘developed’ economy - could not, in the end, deliver and, without a fractured and largely ineffectual opposition, it took intense IMF and World Bank pressure to force Jammeh to address corruption.
What Jammeh offered to appease the mighty international banks was the so-called ‘Operation no Compromise’ - a lackluster effort to salvage a decaying economy and an already tainted image of Jammeh himself. He appointed the Paul Commission to investigate graft in the country – but named the body after the presiding judge who is himself facing allegations of corruption. This fact has severely discredited the commission. Perhaps not surprisingly, neither Jammeh nor his vice president, Isatou Njie-Saidy, have appeared before the commission to account for their enormous wealth. Indeed Jammeh is not subtle about being one of the wealthiest heads of state in West Africa having publicly vowed that, “My great-great grandchildren will never know what poverty is.”
Overall, pervasive corruption and Jammeh’s tendency to divert scarce national resources to bolster the military and to construct ‘feel-good’ infrastructure projects constitute the main reasons for the national economy’s downward spiral, resulting in 72 per cent of Gambians living in abject poverty. The president, however, answers his critics by pointing to numerous schools, hospitals, clinics, and roads that he constructed since coming to power. He also refurbished the national airport and government-owned radio station, in addition to building the country’s first university and only television station. His critics, however, maintain the quality of services have deteriorated sharply and with it the country’s infrastructure.
In early 2006 Jammeh shocked the international community and angered HIV/Aids activists when he claimed he had discovered a cure for the disease and for asthma (among other ailments). This drew worldwide ridicule. It is clear that Jammeh’s medical claims are intended to deflect attention from a failed health system that has seen many Gambians die routinely from easily preventable ailments, while he and his family seek medical care abroad. His economic claims are equally overblown but just as implausible. He has frequently promised to transform The Gambia into a giant of informational technology – dubbing it Africa’s ‘Silicone Valley’ (despite there being very little promotion of science and technology in schools) and, while he is at it, to provide every village in the country with adequate electricity and water. None of these promises have come to pass.
Additionally, his pronouncement that The Gambia is home to commercially viable oil deposits has not been independently confirmed. To make matters worse, Jammeh has sold off several state-owned enterprises to foreign investors and to himself, as he is frequently part owner.
Predictably, a symptom of these policy failures is gross violations against foreign and local journalists whose job it is to see beyond the trickery. The killing in 2000 of Omar Barrow, while administering first aid to students during a demonstration, in which 14 students were fatally shot, coupled with the cold-blooded murder of Deyda Hydra in 2004 was an unambiguous message to journalists and ordinary citizens alike – the president is in absolute control.
In addition to “curing” HIV/AIDS, Jammeh now claims to have powers over the occult and is bent on ridding The Gambia of so-called witches by orally administering a concoction to the accused, sometimes with life threatening consequences. Many citizens have been sent to jail or prison, following these purges. These witch-hunts may resonate with some Gambians and therefore serve the purpose of keeping citizens in check through fear. Jammeh’s own paranoia and concerns over his safety may very well explain this bizarre behavior.
Consequently, many Gambians believe that he will never be defeated through the ballot box and that it will take yet another bloody coup to remove him from office. In 2006 he foiled an alleged coup in which several senior army officers were tried, imprisoned or killed. Daba Marena, who headed the notorious National Intelligence Agency (NIA) -the repressive arm of the regime -, was allegedly killed along with four security officers en route to prison. Jammeh’s paranoia leads him to believe that counter-coups are regularly being planned against him. As a result he has used this as a pretext to carry out purges against his perceived or potential enemies in the army. Yet Jammeh’s best hope of averting this is if he uses the mandate from his 2006 victory to widen political participation, undertake genuine reconciliation, root out corruption and grow the economy. The blood bath following the alleged foiled coup makes this prospect unlikely.
It is improbable that The Gambia will ever realize its promise unless Jammeh is replaced by a service-oriented leadership aided by domestic pressure and international economic sanctions similar to those that forced him initially to cut short a four-year ‘transition program’ to two.
Alternatively, under the good offices of ex-Presidents Obasanjo, Mbeki of Nigeria and South Africa, respectively and ex-President Kufuor of Ghana, Jammeh could be persuaded to step down at the end of his third term in exchange for immunity from prosecution of all but capital crimes. Elections would then be held to usher in a new administration and third republic.
If these peaceful measures fail to dislodge Jammeh, he most certainly faces the prospect of being violently overthrown by a disgruntled faction of the army, in which case he stands to get killed or captured and tried like his friend, Charles Taylor, for crimes against humanity at The Hague.
This article was generously provided to The Gambia Echo courtesy of Professor Saine. It appeared in last month’s BBC Focus on Africa Magazine